Mutiny in China – A Country on the Edge of Collapse
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With all the anticipation surrounding this episode, it’s safe to say that Caitlin Clark is about to set the sports world ablaze once again. Whether you’re a longtime fan or new to her story, this is an interview you won’t want to miss. Be sure to check out “New Heights” and join in the excitement as Caitlin continues to redefine what’s possible for athletes everywhere.
Mutiny in China – A Country on the Edge of Collapse
The Chinese youth have ignited a movement so unprecedented that it threatens to dismantle the country’s economic foundation. This rebellion, coined as “Ba Lan” (meaning “let it rot”), represents an undercurrent of dissatisfaction among young people in China. Unlike other protests, this movement has proven difficult for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to suppress.
Recent uprisings in major cities like Shanghai have seen police crackdowns and arrests, yet the nonviolent nature of this rebellion makes it a potent force. Even Xi Jinping, the president who once boldly confronted global powers, has now appealed to the youth to abandon their dissent. However, the roots of this discontent run deep, stemming from decades of policies and societal expectations.
The Origins of Discontent
The “Ba Lan” movement gained traction in early 2022, with over 91 million views on platforms like Weibo within six months. At its core, young people in China are rejecting societal pressure and choosing to withdraw from the relentless grind of life. Many have quit jobs, abandoned societal goals, and embraced mediocrity.
This trend follows the “Tang Ping” (“lying flat”) movement of 2021, where individuals similarly resisted China’s demanding work culture. Both movements are responses to systemic issues like intense work hours, insufficient job opportunities, and societal pressure to achieve specific milestones, such as buying property.
The Fallout of Draconian Policies
China’s crackdown on private tutoring in 2021 illustrates the broader economic struggles fueling youth frustration. By banning for-profit tutoring for core school subjects, the CCP disrupted a $100 billion industry, causing massive layoffs and eroding investor confidence. Companies like New Oriental Education lost 83% of their value within ten months, and hundreds of thousands of employees were affected.
The government also targeted the tech and real estate sectors, resulting in significant job losses. Alibaba laid off 10,000 employees in 2022, while property developer Country Garden fired 30,000 workers. These policy changes have left young people disillusioned about their prospects, contributing to the broader rejection of traditional aspirations.
Economic and Social Pressures
China’s infamous 996 work culture—working from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week—has further exacerbated the crisis. While older generations embraced long hours to rebuild the nation, today’s youth are rejecting this toxic culture. Yet, with youth unemployment reaching 21.3% in 2023, many feel trapped in jobs they despise.
Adding to the crisis, housing prices in cities like Beijing and Shanghai are now 12 times the average income, making homeownership an unattainable dream for most young Chinese. This financial strain has undermined traditional expectations of establishing a family and career, further fueling movements like “Ba Lan.”
Demographic Challenges
China’s population of 1.4 billion includes 280 million people aged 60 or older, creating a demographic time bomb. The infamous one-child policy, implemented in 1980, slowed population growth but has left the country with an aging population and an insufficient workforce. By 2035, 400 million Chinese citizens—30% of the population—will be over 60.
This demographic imbalance, coupled with a skewed male-to-female ratio, has created widespread social and economic challenges. The shrinking working-age population has already begun to mirror Japan’s economic decline, where a similar trend led to reduced domestic consumption and GDP growth.
Economic Slowdown and Deflation
China’s economy is also showing signs of stagnation. Deflation—marked by falling consumer prices—reflects a lack of demand, as people and businesses cut back on spending. This vicious cycle of low demand, reduced production, and fewer jobs has left the second-largest economy in the world struggling to revive growth.
The Way Forward
Movements like “Ba Lan” and “Tang Ping” are not just protests against the CCP but symptoms of a larger economic and societal malaise. Addressing youth dissatisfaction, unemployment, and the pressures of an aging population will require significant reforms. Without decisive action, these issues could have lasting consequences for China’s economy and global standing.
Over the past decade, China’s GDP growth has averaged around 2.5%, with projections predicting a drop to 2.03% by 2029. This stagnation reflects a broader trend seen in countries with declining populations. While some argue this slowdown is due to these nations having already reached advanced levels of development, the lack of a sustained population base significantly impacts their economies. The U.S. provides an interesting counterpoint, where a younger population has helped maintain economic stability.
Population decline affects both supply and demand in an economy. On the supply side, a shrinking labor force reduces production. On the demand side, fewer people result in lower consumption of goods, services, and housing, leading to deflation and economic stagnation. China is currently grappling with these challenges. To address its population crisis, the government ended its one-child policy in 2016, allowing families to have two children, and later expanded this to three in 2021. However, these changes have had limited impact, as the fertility rate remains below the replacement level of 2.1.
Decades of enforcing the one-child policy have ingrained a cultural preference for smaller families, and many Chinese citizens question whether they can afford more children. This policy has had far-reaching economic and social consequences, even weakening the nation’s military prospects. Furthermore, growing dissatisfaction among China’s youth with President Xi Jinping’s leadership has fueled discontent. Some young people are reportedly turning to external organizations like the CIA, highlighting their desperation under Xi’s regime.
Frustration among Chinese youth has also manifested through social movements. Phrases like “Tang Ping” (lying flat) and “Bai Lan” (let it rot) have gained popularity, reflecting a rejection of the relentless work culture and a sense of hopelessness. Rising unemployment and income inequality exacerbate their struggles. In August, youth unemployment reached 21.3%, with many young people unable to secure stable, well-paying jobs despite being highly educated.
Xi’s policies have further strained the economy. His crackdown on the private tutoring industry and increased state control of lucrative sectors like tech and real estate have led to massive layoffs and declining wages. For example, the tech industry, which employed millions and paid above-average salaries, has seen significant job cuts. These decisions have eroded trust in Xi’s leadership among young people, who face mounting economic pressures.
Adding to their discontent is Xi’s authoritarian approach. Measures such as the zero-COVID policy, which imposed strict lockdowns and restrictions, deeply frustrated the public. Harsh enforcement of these rules and censorship of dissent have only intensified resentment. The delayed phasing out of this policy and Xi’s broader centralization of power have further alienated the youth, who are now voicing their discontent more openly, both online and in their daily lives.
In summary, China’s declining population, restrictive policies, and authoritarian governance have created a challenging environment for its youth, who increasingly feel trapped in a cycle of economic and social stagnation. Their growing dissatisfaction underscores deeper structural issues that the government must address to restore confidence and stability.
Leadership created a divide between Xi Jinping and Chinese youth, who did not immediately turn to external influences like the CIA but instead sought to voice their dissatisfaction with domestic issues. The discontent gained momentum during protests against strict COVID-19 measures. Shanghai was one of the first cities to erupt, with youth shouting slogans like “Freedom! We want freedom! End lockdowns!” China’s response to the protests only exacerbated tensions. In cities like Beijing and Shanghai, police patrolled extensively, checking phones for VPNs and apps like Telegram, which were used by protesters. These heavy-handed actions portrayed Xi as being out of touch with the concerns of the protesters. His strict policies disrupted opportunities for the youth and kept families separated, leaving a long-lasting impact on livelihoods.
Xi further alienated young people by converting independent colleges into vocational schools, which sparked protests across several provinces. The youth viewed university degrees as more prestigious and essential in a competitive job market, and the changes only deepened their frustration. Compounding the problem, Xi’s administration failed to create job opportunities for the 8 million graduates entering the workforce each year. Exhausted from protesting and facing severe backlash, many young people began resorting to more desperate measures.
Amid this turmoil, the CIA saw an opportunity. The U.S. intelligence agency capitalized on the widespread discontent among China’s youth, leveraging their grievances to recruit informants and increase pressure on Xi’s regime. This tactic is not an escalation but a response to years of espionage between the U.S. and China, a rivalry that has seen China deploy spies in various forms, from scientists and businesspeople to students abroad.
China’s intelligence operations, led by the Ministry of State Security and the People’s Liberation Army, have been effective but controversial. However, the CIA’s recruitment efforts among Chinese youth represent a new challenge for Beijing, whose tightened security measures under Xi’s leadership have made intelligence-gathering increasingly difficult. This strategy follows a history of espionage mishaps, including a major breach between 2010 and 2012 that led to the unmasking and execution of over 20 CIA informants in China. The fallout from this incident crippled the CIA’s operations in the region for years.
Adding to the domestic turmoil is China’s real estate crisis, which has shaken the country’s economy to its core. Real estate, a cornerstone of Chinese culture and wealth, became a speculative bubble, with families investing heavily in properties. Developers like Evergrande took advantage of this boom, selling homes before construction and using the funds to acquire more land rather than complete projects. When the government introduced the “three red lines” policy to curb debt, it triggered a liquidity crisis, leaving millions of homes unfinished and buyers furious.
Local governments, which depended on land leases for revenue, were complicit in enabling risky practices. The resulting protests over unpaid mortgages and abandoned projects forced the CCP to intervene with bailout measures, such as lowering mortgage rates and easing down payment requirements. However, these efforts have done little to restore confidence in the real estate market, as falling property prices and loss aversion deter potential buyers.
The real estate collapse has had ripple effects on the broader economy. As wealth tied to property diminishes, consumer spending has declined, leading to a vicious cycle of reduced business revenues and layoffs. Unlike the West, which relied on monetary stimulus during the pandemic, China refrained from printing money, further exacerbating the downturn. The situation has drawn comparisons to Japan’s “lost decades” following its real estate crash in the 1990s.
Xi’s leadership faces mounting challenges: disillusioned youth, economic instability, and international pressure. Whether the CCP can navigate these crises and implement effective solutions remains to be seen.
The bursting of the bubble led to deflation—essentially the opposite of inflation—where prices drop instead of rise. While this might sound beneficial to consumers, it’s detrimental to an economy. When people anticipate lower prices in the future, they delay spending, believing they can buy things cheaper later. This reduced spending leads to businesses earning less, resulting in layoffs and further declines in consumer spending due to rising unemployment. This cycle is reminiscent of what happened in Japan during the 1990s when its real estate bubble burst. Many economists fear China might be headed down the same path. If the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) doesn’t address the issue, the situation could deteriorate rapidly.
To combat this crisis, the CCP recently introduced a policy aimed at reviving the real estate market. Earlier this year, they launched the “Project Whitelist,” enabling city governments to recommend stalled residential projects to banks for financial support. This essentially allows banks to lend money to certain developers to complete these projects. However, developers are struggling to repay existing loans, forcing banks to extend or replace those loans. This puts immense pressure on China’s banking system, which is already grappling with the effects of the real estate crash. If banks accumulate too much bad debt, public trust in their solvency could waver—a problem with serious consequences.
The modern banking system relies on depositors trusting banks to safeguard their money. Banks typically loan out deposits to earn interest and generate profits, keeping only a fraction of deposits (e.g., 10%) as reserves. This fractional reserve system has fueled significant economic growth over the past century. However, when too many loans fail, trust in banks falters, leading to financial instability. After the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. implemented stricter lending regulations to mitigate risks. Similarly, Chinese banks are cautious about extending loans to risky developers despite the CCP’s policies, further exacerbating the problem as incomplete projects stall new real estate sales.
Real estate accounts for approximately 30% of China’s GDP, making it a critical pillar of its economy. In comparison, real estate represented only 6% of the U.S. GDP during the 2008 crash and 9% of Japan’s GDP during its 1990s crisis. This means that any hit to China’s real estate sector could have far more devastating effects. When Japan’s real estate bubble burst, it led to two decades of economic stagnation, with GDP per capita still hovering around the same levels as in the 1990s. If China follows a similar trajectory, the consequences could be even worse, given its heavier reliance on real estate. However, the CCP has the advantage of learning from Japan’s mistakes and must carefully manage the crisis to avoid prolonged economic suffering.
Adding to the complexity, China’s global ambitions and strategic moves through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) pose additional risks. By investing in and gaining control over key ports worldwide, China is consolidating its influence on global trade. As of 2023, China holds stakes in 92 ports, including 13 under majority ownership. Some of these ports even have potential military uses, allowing China to station naval vessels. This growing control over critical infrastructure has alarmed many countries, especially those struggling under debts incurred through Chinese loans.
A notable example of China’s tactics is the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka. Positioned on a key trade route, the port was funded by a $1.3 billion loan from China. However, due to poor governance and competition from the nearby Colombo Port, Hambantota failed to generate sufficient revenue. Struggling under mounting debt, Sri Lanka was forced to hand over the port to China on a 99-year lease in a public-private partnership. Yet, despite losing control of the port, Sri Lanka still bears the financial burden of repaying the original loan.
China’s strategy often involves lending to economically vulnerable countries, knowing they may default. When defaults occur, China takes control of strategic assets, expanding its influence. This tactic, combined with political maneuvering and even allegations of bribing local leaders, has enabled China to strengthen its foothold across the globe, often at the expense of the sovereignty and economic stability of the countries involved.
During Mr. Rajo’s tenure, power was concentrated in his hands. He controlled the parliament, and his family oversaw 75% of the country’s projects. He and his three brothers controlled key government ministries and nearly 80% of the total government spending. This made it easy for China to bribe them and push projects favorable to Chinese interests. China’s influence grew significantly, allowing Chinese entities to complete their projects at inflated costs without opposition.
For instance, during the construction of Hambantota Port, a large boulder partially blocked the entrance, preventing large ships like oil tankers from entering. However, this issue was ignored during construction, and the port was inaugurated in 2010 on Mr. Rajo’s birthday. A year later, China Harbor Engineering Company blasted the boulder but charged an astounding $40 million for the task. This led to suspicions of overcharging and possible kickbacks to Mr. Rajo.
In another case, Mr. Rajo approved the construction of Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, financed by China’s Exim Bank. The project was doomed from the start, as only $6,000 was allocated for a feasibility study, while $80,000 was spent on a grand inauguration ceremony. This reflected Mr. Rajo’s alignment with Chinese interests.
China’s influence extended into Sri Lanka’s politics. During the 2015 elections, a government investigation revealed that large payments from the Chinese Port Construction Fund were funneled into campaign activities for Mr. Rajo’s party. Around $7.6 million was transferred from China Harbor’s account to Mr. Rajo’s campaign affiliates, with $3.7 million distributed just ten days before the election.
This pattern is not unique to Sri Lanka. China has been accused of similar practices in other countries. For example, in Bangladesh, China Harbor allegedly attempted to bribe a government official by stuffing $100,000 into a tea box. This led to Bangladesh banning China Harbor from future contracts. Similarly, in 2009, China Communications Construction Company, China Harbor’s parent company, was banned from World Bank projects in the Philippines for corrupt practices.
Sri Lanka eventually found itself in a fragile economic situation. Anti-China and anti-Rajo sentiments were high, leading to the opposition leader, Maithripala Sirisena, winning the election. He promised to cancel many Chinese projects and reduce Chinese influence, but the damage had already been done.
The Hambantota Port, in particular, became a significant concern for India and the United States. On August 16, 2022, a Chinese vessel named Yuan Wang 5 entered the port. While labeled a scientific research ship, it was later revealed to be a military vessel capable of tracking satellites and missiles over a range of 750 km. This raised alarms in India, as the ship could monitor strategic assets within the country.
China’s control over Hambantota Port provided two major advantages:
- Strategic Location: The port is situated near critical trade routes connecting the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca. Roughly 80% of China’s oil supply and 90% of its trade pass through the Strait of Malacca. In the event of a conflict, India could block this chokepoint, making Hambantota crucial for China’s energy security.
- “String of Pearls” Strategy: Hambantota is part of China’s network of ports and military infrastructure encircling India.
A similar scenario unfolded in Pakistan, where China used its debt-trap strategy. In 2015, China launched the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $46 billion infrastructure project that has since grown to $62 billion. However, most of the money flowed back to China, as Chinese companies and workers dominated the projects.
Initially, Pakistan granted management of Gwadar Port to the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) in 2007, with plans for significant investments and revenue-sharing agreements. However, in 2013, the management was transferred to China Overseas Ports Holding Company for 43 years. Under this agreement, China would receive 91% of port revenue and 85% of revenue from the free zone, leaving Pakistan with minimal benefits.
Gwadar Port has become strategically important for China, offering two key advantages:
- Energy Security: It provides a direct route for transporting oil and energy resources from Pakistan to China, bypassing the Malacca Strait.
- Proximity to the Strait of Hormuz: Located just 600 km away, Gwadar enhances China’s access to this vital chokepoint, which handles 20% of the world’s oil supply.
Around 30–35% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied fuels pass through critical maritime routes, making Gwadar Port strategically vital for China. Establishing a military presence in Gwadar helps China deter rivals like India in the region. Gwadar is also a significant part of China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, aimed at securing key maritime points. Reflecting its importance, China gifted two ships to Pakistan’s navy in 2017 to protect the port and nearby trade routes, later adding two more ships.
China’s influence isn’t limited to Gwadar. In the South China Sea, it directly challenges the U.S. and has strategically invested in ports across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Key ports in Australia, such as Newcastle, Melbourne, and Darwin, as well as projects in countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea, play a critical role. Particularly concerning is Darwin Port in Australia, leased to China’s Landbridge Group for 99 years in 2015, which led to U.S. and Australian scrutiny.
China’s port investments span continents, with stakes or operations in 10 Asian countries, including North Korea, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Saudi Arabia. On the African continent, China has invested in 24 ports across more than 10 countries, with a total value exceeding $20 billion. Many of these ports lie near critical choke points like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, through which 30–35% of global crude oil flows.
Despite China’s aggressive lending strategy and reports of “debt-trap diplomacy,” many nations continue to borrow from Beijing. Between 2021 and 2022, China lent over $1.34 trillion to 165 countries, primarily low- and middle-income nations. This preference for Chinese loans stems from three main factors: (1) China offers larger loans for infrastructure projects than the IMF or World Bank, (2) it imposes fewer conditions on borrowers, and (3) its “resource-backed lending” model enables repayment through lucrative projects like oil or mining revenues.
China’s mixed funding model, first applied in Angola, allows it to finance infrastructure in exchange for resources. For example, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), loans were backed by mineral exports. Similarly, Guinea secured a $587 million loan for roads using bauxite as collateral. In many cases, repayment includes geopolitical concessions or control over strategic assets, such as Gwadar International Airport in Pakistan, built entirely under Chinese control.
China’s influence extends to Europe, where it holds stakes in 12 port projects, including two in Spain and one each in Germany and Belgium. The most notable example is Greece’s Piraeus Port, where China’s COSCO acquired a controlling 67% stake. Since COSCO’s involvement, container volume at the port has surged. However, concerns have been raised over poor working conditions, environmental impact, and geopolitical risks, as the port serves as China’s gateway to Europe.
Resistance to China’s influence is growing worldwide. Greece has blocked Chinese bids in other sectors, and local opposition has delayed COSCO’s plans for Piraeus. Italy, once part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), formally exited in December 2023, becoming the first G7 nation to do so. Other European countries, such as Estonia and Latvia, have also distanced themselves from China by leaving the “17+1” group, with Lithuania taking bold steps to strengthen ties with Taiwan.
In Africa, Chinese loan commitments have declined sharply, dropping from $28 billion in 2016 to under $1 billion in 2022. This shift reflects falling demand for Chinese debt, coupled with economic slowdowns in both China and recipient nations. Meanwhile, some projects, like Tanzania’s Bagamoyo Port, were canceled due to concerns about exploitation.
In Asia, flagship projects like Pakistan’s Gwadar Port face challenges. Despite China’s significant investments, the port struggles to achieve its strategic goals, signaling potential setbacks for Beijing’s broader ambitions.
Globally, the tide is turning against China’s unchecked influence, with countries prioritizing sovereignty, transparency, and sustainable development over short-term economic gains.
The Pakistani government can hardly refuse Chinese investment, but this has caused dissatisfaction among local people, especially in the already unstable Balochistan region. In addition to opposing Chinese projects, insurgent groups here have also fought the Pakistani army because the government has not invested in developing the region despite exploiting its resources. To improve the situation, China has built schools, sent doctors, and pledged to invest $500 million in infrastructure projects. However, despite Pakistan deploying 12,000 troops to protect Chinese workers, attacks have continued.
In addition, the CPEC economic corridor passes through the Kashmir region – a disputed region between India and Pakistan – making the project vulnerable to threats if the situation escalates. Meanwhile, in Myanmar, China has reduced its investment in the Kyaukpyu port project from $7 billion to $1.3 billion due to concerns about debt traps from Beijing. Similarly, many countries such as Samoa and Israel have also canceled or sought to counterbalance Chinese projects by partnering with other partners such as India, Japan, and the United States.
On the domestic front, China’s stock market is in a severe slump, with the CSI300 index down nearly 40% since 2021. This reflects China’s economic slowdown, contrary to the government’s claims of growth. Despite the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) efforts to maintain stock prices and control the market, problems such as the real estate crisis, huge public debt, and deflation are weakening the economy. In addition, the lack of confidence from both domestic and foreign investors has further destabilized the market.
China’s economic weakness has not only internal impacts but also impacts its global expansion strategy, including the “Belt and Road” initiative. Many projects have been canceled, and foreign direct investment in China has turned negative for the first time in 25 years. This shows that China is facing many major challenges both economically and politically in the coming time.