Is an asteroid headed toward Earth? There are asteroids heading toward us all the time, but the important thing is whether they will collide or just pass by.
A newly discovered asteroid, codenamed 2024 YR4, was identified in late 2024. Its exact size is still unclear, but estimates range from 50 to 100 meters. To determine more precisely, scientists will use the James Webb Space Telescope.
If this asteroid collides with Earth, it could create an impact crater 1 to 2 kilometers in diameter.
However, most of the Earth’s surface is ocean or uninhabited land, so the chance of causing major damage is low. If it hits a populated area, it could destroy an entire city.
Currently, the probability of 2024 YR4 impacting is estimated at only 1 to 2%. If it follows the central trajectory of the uncertainty range, it will pass by Earth at a distance equivalent to the distance from Earth to the Moon—which is perfectly safe.
However, if there is a risk of impact, we can determine the area of impact. Its assumed path begins south of the equator in the Pacific Ocean, passing through South America, the Atlantic, North Africa, the Indian Ocean, and ending in Southeast Asia.
As we get closer to January 22, 2032, we will have more precise data that will help us determine with certainty whether it will impact.
Space agencies around the world, including NASA and China, have planetary defense plans in place to deal with potential threats like this. The Torino Scale, developed by scientist Rick Binzel, is used to rate the risk of asteroids.
Currently, 2024 YR4 is rated 3 on this scale, meaning it is worth keeping an eye on by astronomers, but is not a serious threat. If more data becomes available, the rating will likely drop to 0, meaning it is not a threat.
While the media often makes headlines about the risk of asteroid impacts, the reality is that we have the tools and methods to track and deal with them scientifically. So there is no reason to panic—keep monitoring and stay informed.
